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Assessing Natural Capital Risk
We’re examining the interrelationship between anthropogenic changes to landcover, population change, and projected impacts on species to estimate risk to natural capital with climate change and potential adaptation options.
The study presents a framework and maps showing where the combined risks to natural capital are highest, where restoration of ecosystems will likely be most resilient and successful and identifies how improving sustainability and population growth placement can minimise future risk to biodiversity and human societies.
Challenge
Assessing the risk that climate change poses to natural capital involves understanding the impacts of different levels of warming on biodiversity and ecosystem services, and how this flows through into natural capital and human systems; how projected population changes can rapidly exacerbate the risk to the natural capital (or, rarely, reduce the risk); and how the magnitude of the average ecological footprint of a country may further increase natural capital risk.
Impact
The project is the first to take an overarching approach to examining how current landcover changes, future climate change, sustainability changes, and population changes work synergistically to increase risk to natural capital and humans. By mapping these at high spatial resolution (300m), this allows policymakers and practitioners to improve local natural capital and to look for solutions to reduce the risk of exceeding planetary boundaries.
“This study shows how past and current landcover changes increase (sometimes drastically) the risk to biodiversity, ecosystem services, and natural capital in many parts of the world. If population growth continues as projected, and the ecological footprint of people living in these places also increase, then many areas that would be at low to medium risk of loss of natural capital under climate change alone, increase to being under extreme risks. In some areas, illegal mining activities, that are not detected in the satellite data used, further increase the risks.”
Associate Professor Jeff Price
Collaborations
In the “Assessing Natural Capital Risk” project, we have been working with Erin Graham from the James Cook University, Australia. Erin, and James Cook University have played a key role in assisting to model the impacts of climate change on biodiversity.
Insights
The study builds on a well-established set of models that look at the potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity under different levels of warming, taking this initial work in new directions with a more comprehensive assessment of the risk from climate change on natural capital.
It provides high spatial resolution information as to where ecosystem restoration is likely to be most effective and guidance where even local action can be taken to improve livelihoods through reducing natural capital risk and enhancing the natural capital bank.
The work shows how increasing ecosystem footprints rapidly make increasing population growth exacerbate the risks from climate change. Solving this requires countries to acquire solutions around sustainability (reducing their ecological footprint).
Findings reveal that climate change risk, when examined in terms of natural capital and not simply as biodiversity, is much higher than the published literature (and the IPCC) shows, and that it is further increased by population pressures and a lack of sustainable growth, reinforcing the need for warming to be held to as close to 1.5°C as possible.
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This set of maps clearly shows the difference that increases in human population have, even with 1.5°C warming. Areas at low risk to natural capital are at high risk once population changes are factored in.
About Us
Associate Professor Jeff Price, of the School of Environmental Sciences, led the Assessing Natural Capital Risk study, working with School colleagues Professor Rachel Warren and Ms Nicole Forstenhäusler, who are also members of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, and former School colleague Dr Rhosanna Jenkins (UEA Alumni, Natcap).
The interdisciplinary team bring together researchers with a wealth of experience in climate change, biodiversity, spatial analysis and modelling,
Discover more
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Read
more...Assessing the potential risks of climate change on the natural capital of six countries resulting from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels
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Discover
more...Biodiversity losses associated with global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels in six countries
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Explore
more...The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas
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The PICCOLO Antarctic Cruise
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National Contributions to Warming
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Discipline Hopping for Discovery Science
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