Shine wears off the European Green Deal as the bloc shifts right
By: Communications
The momentum may be faltering to push forward climate targets set by the European Union’s Green Deal – with initiatives such as biodiversity at risk.
The Green Deal remains fundamentally a moving political object with blurry boundaries, rather than a ‘done deal’, said Dr Pierre Bocquillon, Associate Professor of EU Politics and Policy at the University of East Anglia (UEA). He is the author of ‘Climate and Energy Transitions in Times of Environmental Backlash? The European Union Green Deal From Adoption to Implementation’, which is published today in the Journal of Common Market Studies.
Dr Bocquillon said: “Since the launch of the Green Deal, political momentum for climate and environmental ambitions has faltered.
“We can expect a change in framing and focus – on competitiveness and green industrialisation in particular – in a context of domestic politicisation of the climate and energy transition and global geopolitical competition.”
The Green Deal, an initiative proposed by the European Commission of Ursula von der Leyen in 2019, included commitments to ‘make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050’, protect biodiversity, create a circular economy and curb pollution, mobilise finance for the green transition – all while boosting the competitiveness of European industry and ensuring a just transition for the affected regions and workers. The implementation of this strategy led to the adoption of a wide range of policy packages and individual laws across different sectors, from climate and energy, to agriculture, transport and the environment.
There is evidence that support for the Green Deal remains high overall among EU citizens. With most of the energy and climate legislation of the Green Deal adopted, the EU's energy and climate transition agenda is likely to prove resilient.
Among the populist right, however, the Green Deal has become a target, especially its nature and biodiversity protection components. As a result, its framing and focus may be changing in a context of domestic politicisation and contestation of the climate and energy transition and global geopolitical competition over the control of green technologies.
Russia’s war on Ukraine and concerns about the security of European energy supplies have favoured the search for alternative fossil fuel suppliers and development of new fossil fuel infrastructures. In parallel, cost of living and economic concerns have also been instrumentalised by the populist and far right to challenge green policies, with a wave of protests at both national and EU levels in 2023 and 2024.
The Green Deal has proved relatively resilient to the COVID pandemic and the energy crisis, the latter even accelerating the EU’s effort to deploy renewables and improve energy efficiency. Implementing legislation has been mostly adopted in 2023 and the first half of 2024 – at least its energy and climate components, which are well-established, benefit from high legitimacy and are deeply institutionalised. These would be hard to undo and they are unlikely to unravel dramatically.
Even so, implementation could prove a challenge for climate and energy, with the possibility of instances of dismantling of specific elements through the back door via executive acts; policies that are due to be reviewed and could be weakened; and perhaps most importantly, a lack of ambitions and stagnation moving forward. There is, therefore, considerable uncertainty, just as a new cycle of negotiations is opening over the 2040 targets.
In contrast, the biodiversity and farming components of the Green Deal have been subject to deeper challenges. The EU Nature Restoration Law has been considerably weakened following farmers' protests and pressure from the centre right’s European People’s Party. Similarly, under pressure from the agro-chemical industry and the right, the Commission decided to withdraw the Sustainable Use Regulation (SUR), which sought to halve pesticide use by 2030.
Moving forward, there are multiple points at which adopted legislation kicks in, becomes more stringent, or requires revisions, Dr Bocquillon said. These are all points when contestation and challenges might emerge.
“Measures such as the phasing out combustion car sales in 2035 or building emission reductions are important but also controversial and contested. They affect businesses and citizens directly,” Dr Bocquillon said.
“This raises questions as to the willingness and ability of the EU to increase its ambitions, which is needed if the bloc is serious about reaching its goal of being carbon neutral by 2050.”
International tensions may also emerge with regards to the impact of EU legislation abroad, such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), effectively a carbon tax on certain imported carbon-intensive goods.
Dr Bocquillon said: “For the Green Deal to succeed, it is essential that costs are mitigated through green industrial policies and offsetting measures. Close cooperation –rather than competition – with external partners is also key for the success of the green transition globally.”
‘Climate and Energy Transitions in Times of Environmental Backlash? The European Union Green Deal From Adoption to Implementation’, which was published on 27 August 2024 in the Journal of Common Market Studies.
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