Labour likely to finish second in Scottish Parliament election
By: News Archive
The SNP is odds-on to retain its parliamentary majority at Holyrood when Scotland goes to the polls, with Labour likely to remain Scotland's second-largest party, according to research from the University of East Anglia.
The findings of a forecast released today by UEA in partnership with polling company TNS show the Conservatives failing to unseat Labour on May 5.
The forecast combines information from publicly available polls of voting intentions together with detailed information on the current state of play in each of the 73 Holyrood constituencies. That information is then projected forward to the day of the election, using a model based on the tendency of parties' levels of support to fall back to previous levels of support – in this case, levels of support in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election.
The seat forecasts from the model are as follows and based on a 90 per cent probability:
Scottish National Party (SNP): most likely to win 72 seats, up 3 seats from the previous Scottish Government elections in 2011. The actual number of seats is likely to be between 62 and 84 seats.
Labour: most likely to win 31 seats, down 6 seats from 2011. The actual number of seats is likely to be between 20 and 43 seats.
Conservatives: most likely to win 17 seats, up 2 seats from 2011. The actual number of seats is likely to be between 8 and 28 seats.
Liberal Democrats: most likely to win 5 seats, no change from 2011. The actual number of seats is likely to be between 1 and 13 seats.
Greens: most likely to win 3 seats, up 1 seats from 2011. The actual number of seats is likely to be between 0 and 10 seats.
The forecast is "conservative with a small-c,” according to the forecast’s author, Dr Chris Hanretty of UEA’s School of Politics.
Dr Hanretty said: “It's always good for a party if it does well in the polls. But a good performance in the polls can evaporate in the run in to an election.
“The Conservatives need ideally to be ahead of Labour now if they're to have any chance of becoming the main opposition party.”
Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland, said: "The polls we conduct are snapshots of voters’ intentions, not predictions, and so we are delighted to team up with UEA to produce further insight on the current state of the parties in Scotland.”
This is one of a series of election forecasts that will be released by UEA and TNS in the run-up to the Holyrood election. Subsequent forecasts will be more precise as time runs out for the parties to improve their polling position.
Dr Hanretty said: "Right now we forecast that the SNP is 90 per cent likely to win between 62 and 84 seats. That's a big range – anywhere from relative disappointment to a thumping win. But with 60 days to go, we wouldn't feel confident being any more precise. Much can, and no doubt will, still happen.”
The probability of the SNP retaining its majority is 89 per cent. The probability that the Conservatives win more seats than Labour, or tie with Labour, is 10.2 per cent.
More details of the forecast can be found at www.electionforecast.scot, which will be updated regularly in line with the most recent polling from now until the date of the election.
Related Articles
Nurses worldwide rely on intuition to triage patients
Nurses around the world use intuition to work out how sick a patient is before triaging for treatment according to new research from the University of East Anglia.
Read more
UEA nursing apprentice’s sky-high dive for Alzheimer's and Dementia awareness
On Sunday 24 September, University of East Anglia (UEA) nursing apprentice Francessca Turrell will be taking part in a charity skydive for Alzheimers Society, a UK care and research charity for people with dementia and their carers.
Read more
New book to focus on Norwich’s medieval logos
Logo Rewind: Trademarks of Medieval Norwich is a new book from UEA Publishing Project, in collaboration with CreativeUEA and featuring the work of Darren Leader, which will focus on the stories of Norwichs medieval merchants marks found in different locat
Read more